June
2024

GP Bullhound Thyra Hedge

Fund Manager's comments

The market volatility in the major tech names has clearly increased during the last month. The industry fundamentals have however not changed and the strength in the areas around AI continues, while we are still struggling with inventory overhang in some sectors, like networking. The volatility is driven by valuation worries and the strong rally we have seen in the AI names. GP Bullhound Thyra Hedge ended up 4.16% in June.

A focus area of June has been the memory market. Micron's Q3 result came in above their own guidance across the board. Both DRAM and NAND prices were up 20% Q/Q. Micron’s HBM memory sales is expected to reach $100 million in 2024 and billions in 2025. The company is the second largest supplier in the market after SK Hynix and expects its market share to increase in 2025. Micron’s HBM memories are sold out for 2024 and 2025, with pricing already contracted for the overwhelming majority of the 2025 supply. The guidance aligned with market expectations, though the whisper consensus was higher, which led to a slight dip in the share price. However, we believe the company's guidance is overly cautious in the short term, given current industry trends. The risk remains that producers may add too much capacity, driving down prices. Nonetheless, we see the results as further evidence of a high-demand environment for the coming years.

The Chinese DRAM manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has received government approval to establish a new manufacturing site in Shanghai, according to industry sources. Again, the largest risk to the recovery of the memory market is that too much capacity is being added in the short run. This is not happening currently, but it is clearly something to watch carefully.

Quote of the month ­– Sanjay Mehrotra – President and CEO of Micron “Due to expectations for continued leading-edge node tightness, we are seeing increased interest from many customers across market segments to secure 2025 long-term agreements ahead of their typical schedule”.

Looking at the portfolio, we have not made any major changes but although we have been addition to our positions in TSMC and AMD. All in all, we are trying to capture some additional return by buying on weakness and selling on strength in individual names.

Historical Performance

Portfolio Team

Manager Photo

Inge Heydorn, Partner, GP Bullhound

Managed research teams and traded technology shares since 1994 (Carnegie, ABN Amro and Deutsche Bank).
 

Ofelia Aspemyr, Investment Associate

​4+ years experience of investments.

General Information

Fund type Daily traded UCITS fund
Management fee 1.5%
Performance fee 20% above SSVX 90d with high water mark
Risk 3 (scale 1-7)
Investment manager GP Bullhound Asset Management Ltd
Fund structure Regulated by Finansinspektionen (Sweden) with SEB as depositary bank, PwC as auditor and Finserve Nordic AB as fund company
ISIN SE0001891490

Geography Exposure

Return Analysis

3 Years
Thyra HedgeHFRI Macro
Annualized Return6.98%10.02%
Total Return22.42%33.17%
Winning Months (%)58.33%61.11%
Best Month6.35%9.22%
Worst Month-5.00%-9.21%

Risk Analysis

3 Years
Thyra HedgeHFRI Macro
Ann. Standard Deviation10.42%17.61%
Sharpe Ratio0.700.63
Sortino Ratio1.140.84
Downside Deviation1.71%3.29%
Maximum Drawdown-10.79%-23.86%

Risk and return analysis based on last 36 months monthly data

Distribution of Monthly Returns

Risk/Return Comparison

Historical Returns

  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year
2024 5.11 3.99 0.87 -0.52 0.17 4.16 14.44
2023 5.96 -1.11 4.59 -4.22 6.35 1.84 1.04 0.47 -4.31 0.24 5.08 1.06 17.56
2022 -0.27 -0.13 -0.87 -3.62 0.78 -2.14 4.93 0.08 -5.00 2.32 3.72 -3.89 -4.50
2021 -0.28 1.72 1.08 -0.80 0.43 0.88 -0.08 0.07 -2.12 0.31 -1.93 -1.03 -1.81
2020 -0.07 -0.11 1.26 -0.04 2.99 1.31 0.11 -1.32 0.76 -0.92 0.70 1.43 6.20
2019 0.90 1.09 0.78 1.47 0.05 -0.27 0.52 -0.27 0.01 0.48 0.01 -0.18 4.67
2018 0.11 0.84 -0.61 1.18 0.02 -0.02 -0.15 -0.19 0.05 0.16 -1.53 -1.00 -1.16
2017 0.64 -1.58 0.19 -0.31 0.35 -0.85 0.92 0.07 0.44 1.11 -0.53 -0.03 0.39
2016 -1.63 -3.44 -0.07 1.41 1.09 -1.11 1.25 0.45 -0.28 0.94 -0.69 -0.68 -2.83
2015 0.01 1.66 0.55 1.64 0.86 0.23 0.16 -0.67 -1.05 0.24 1.19 -0.53 4.33
2014 3.77 2.42 -4.05 -8.87 3.26 3.78 2.75 1.43 1.14 3.70 -1.34 2.09 9.64
2013 -0.63 0.32 -1.27 -3.37 0.62 -0.08 -0.87 -0.05 1.00 -4.90 0.71 1.21 -7.25

About GP Bullhound

GP Bullhound is a leading independent investment and advisory house focused solely on the technology sector globally.

The firm has 10+ offices and over 100 staff on three continents.

GP Bullhound Asset Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by FCA.

For more information, please visit www.gpbullhound.com

Investment Themes

Thematic investment strategy focusing on technology companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows, where innovation is driving major changes and creating global market opportunities. Concentrated portfolio with intensive research and leveraging our long-term established industry network.

Proven alpha generation with low correlation and limited market risk, where our tactical trading around core positions reduces volatility and minimizes losses.

 

Disclaimer

Investing in mutual funds always involves a risk. Historical returns are not an indicator of future returns. Investors may lose part or all of the invested amount. Information in this monthly report should not be seen as anything else than a statement of the fund’s holdings and activity.

For more information on risks, read more in the fund's KIID and prospectus, available on https://thyrahedge.se/


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